Oscar predictions: Finest Image, Actor, and Actress coming right down to the wire in heated awards race

This has been removed from an abnormal Oscar season.

Certain, annually has its justifiable share of ups, downs, pendulum swings, and flameouts, however this 12 months has been particularly noteworthy. Often, by now, pundits and insiders can begin to confirm the place issues stand heading into Oscar evening, and for a lot of the classes (Finest Supporting Actor and Actress, for instance), you’ll be able to in all probability make a stable, educated guess as to who will take house the gold. However simply while you suppose you’ve lastly received all of it found out, the hammer drops once more, and we’re left to throw our fingers up and flip a coin. To not point out all the trade and city being fully upended by the horrific California wildfires, which nearly noticed the ceremony postponed (the nominations had been delayed by two weeks).

Take Sean Baker’s fantastic Fairly Girls for Gen-Z indie darling “Anora,” which gained the celebrated Palme d’Or from Cannes and has been on a heater as of late, choosing up main precursor awards from the Administrators Guild, Writers Guild, and, maybe most notably, the Producers Guild—the latter of which makes use of the identical preferential poll that the Oscars use when voting (which means it’s not about being #1, however fairly #2). Up till these statues had been handed out, you may make a case that Brady Corbet’s engrossing three-and-a-half-hour epic “The Brutalist” was on its technique to Finest Image glory for indie distributor A24. However alas, its momentum has stalled (which in all probability wasn’t helped by its current controversy surrounding using AI).

Likewise, for the musical (and box-office juggernaut) “Depraved,” which, in November, appeared just like the film to beat. The Academy has a long-storied historical past of awarding film musicals, but it surely peaked on the mistaken time and has all however fizzled out heading into Oscar Sunday. I assume the Jon M. Chu-directed flick must accept its over $700 million in worldwide ticket gross sales, although it ought to take house Oscar gold in some below-the-line classes, like Manufacturing Design and Costumes.

Maybe the largest shocker of the award season (apart from the body-horror masterpiece “The Substance” in some way sneaking its approach into Finest Image) was Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” fully imploding. When nominations had been handed out, it appeared that the streamer would possibly lastly get the one factor they’ve chased after for almost a decade: a Finest Image win. Main the sphere with 13 nominations, Jacques Audiard’s musical a couple of cartel boss who retires and transitions into life as a girl has been riddled with one downside after one other. Apart from the web backlash from individuals who dislike the film for varied causes, it was lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón who can be the one to kneecap Netflix’s award marketing campaign.

As an alternative of us celebrating Gascón’s milestone nomination for being the primary trans girl to be nominated for Finest Actress, a current sequence of previous tweets and feedback had been unearthed that put the ultimate nail within the coffin.

Which brings us to Edward Berger’s riveting papal thriller “Conclave,” which has two main precursors heading into Oscar Sunday: each the BAFTA (British Academy of Movie and Tv) and, most not too long ago, the SAG ensemble award. Will or not it’s sufficient to push it over the end line, particularly as present occasions have given this movie a brand new, well timed relevance?

Beneath are my Oscar predictions in all 24 classes. 

“Conclave” having the one-two punch of each the BAFTA and the SAG ensemble awards helps its narrative, however the lack of a nomination for director Edward Berger is notable. The one different film in Oscar historical past to win the highest slot and not using a directing nomination and with each the BAFTA/SAG combo was 2012’s “Argo.” It will likely be an in depth race (you can also’t low cost “The Brutalist” or the popular Bob Dylan biopic “A Full Unknown”), however I feel Sean Baker’s indie darling “Anora,” with its huge DGA/WGA/PGA/Indie Spirit haul, has sufficient juice to get it over the end line.

For a very long time, this appeared like Brady Corbet’s Oscar to lose. The actor-turned-director’s $10 million interval epic “The Brutalist” is the kind of bootstrap indie that requires a gentle hand to see it via to fruition. However now, Sean Baker is within the driver’s seat. After profitable the Administrators Guild’s high prize, it appears poised that the filmmaker—who’s a serious champion of the theatrical expertise and has by no means labored throughout the confines of the studio system, at all times opting as an alternative to make his movies for indie distributors—goes to stroll away with the gold.

It is a robust one. My coronary heart needs man-of-the-moment Timothée Chalamet to drag the upset for his engrossing portrayal of Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s “A Full Unknown,” and his current SAG win would recommend he’s received some help on his aspect. Nonetheless, Oscar voting concluded earlier than the SAG awards, making this class the toughest to foretell. It might be historic if Chalamet gained, as he would change into the youngest Finest Actor winner in historical past, taking the title from—yep, you guessed it—Adrien Brody, who memorably gained the award at age 29 for his function in “The Pianist.” I’m sticking with Brody right here, however I don’t really feel nice about it.

Discuss a flip of occasions. Earlier than the season began, I don’t suppose anybody anticipated Moore to be within the operating for the Finest Actress trophy for a movie that’s nearly the precise reverse of what many would outline as an “Oscar” film. As somebody who thought “The Substance” was the most effective film of 2024, I couldn’t be extra thrilled. A weird and completely bonkers physique horror film, minimize from the identical material as one thing like David Cronenberg’s “The Fly” (and that includes an insane, blood-soaked third act), getting Oscar love is among the coolest issues the Academy has ever accomplished. You may’t rule out Mikey Madison for “Anora,” however she will probably be again. It’s Moore’s to lose.

You may take the above two to the financial institution. No person is thrashing these two. Sorry Ariana Grande, however you’ll be able to run it again subsequent 12 months with “Depraved: For Good.”

HERE ARE THE REST OF MY PREDICTION IN THE REMAINING CATEGORIES:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The Wild Robotic (FLOW may play spoiler)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Conclave 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Anora

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Depraved 

BEST FILM EDITING: Conclave 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Substance 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Depraved

BEST SCORE: The Brutalist

BEST SONG: EL MAL – Emilia Pérez  

BEST SOUND: Dune: Half Two 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune: Half Two 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No Different Land 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: I’m Nonetheless Right here 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: I Am Prepared, Warden 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Man Who May No Stay Silent 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Lovely Males 

The 97th version of the Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will air Sunday, March 2nd at 7:00pm EST on ABC and streaming on Hulu.