Led by Marvel’s “Captain America: Courageous New World” (Disney), February will proceed the three-month pattern of improved field workplace in comparison with the earlier 12 months. By the top of February, we could be 25 p.c of 2024.
No one expects that to proceed for the total 12 months. If it did, grosses for U.S./Canada theaters would attain $11.5 billion. In 2018 we noticed about $12 billion — at present ticket costs, that equates to $15 billion.
January rose 10 p.c from final 12 months, however greater than two thirds of that gross got here from holdovers. “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” (Lionsgate) was the most effective of a weak group with $33 million in January, however Common’s “Canine Man” and Sony’s Considered one of Them Days” will every far exceed that whole.
A complete of round $550 million in February seems doable; final 12 months was an abysmal $375 million. Within the lead would be the new “Captain America,” which can also be the primary Disney Marvel entry since “Deadpool & Wolverine” final July. It may gross $175 million-$200 million in its first two weeks. By comparability, the latest “America” franchise launch grossed $500 million adjusted.
That’s a pleasant enchancment over final 12 months. However earlier than Covid, February at all times grossed over $600 million — in a few years, over $800 million (adjusted). In 2018, when “Black Panther” debuted, it handed $1 billion unadjusted.
This entry begins a brand new collection, with Anthony Mackie changing Chris Evans within the lead (identical title, completely different character). It’s directed by Julius Onah, whose earlier credit embrace the acclaimed “Luce.” He’s one other indie director within the Marvel roster that features Cate Shortland, Chloe Zhao, Nia DaCosta, Ryan Coogler.
Holdovers led by “Canine Man” ought to present an analogous quantity to the whole. “Paddington in Peru” (Sony), which opened in a lot of the world late final 12 months ($93 million up to now) seems like the opposite new launch with the most effective probability to gross near $50 million in the course of the month. Each “Paddington” and “Captain America” open February 14, capturing each Valentine’s Day and a four-day vacation weekend.
“The Monkey” (Neon), which opens February 21, is the wild card among the many month’s new movies. Based mostly on a Stephen King brief story, it’s directed by Osgood Perkins (“Longlegs”).
Vast releases embrace “Love Hurts” (Common) and “Coronary heart Eyes” (Sony), each counterprogrammed towards the February 7 Tremendous Bowl; “Unbreakable Boy” (Lionsgate) February 21; and “The Final Breath” (Focus) February 28. These lower-budget originals aren’t projected to interrupt out, however a number of opening over $10 million would enhance the month, construct on the success of “Considered one of Them Days,” and drive curiosity in producing related titles.