James Cameron’s Avatar is one of the most ambitious film projects we’ve ever seen. His plan to make a trilogy of movies transformed into a five-movie epic, with two movies shot simultaneously, and two more set to be made the same way. Considering that the first two Avatar movies are two of the highest-grossing movies ever made, most assume the final two are only a matter of time, but Cameron isn’t quite so sure.
James Cameron has already spoken about the possibility that Avatar: Fire and Ash might not make enough money for the franchise to continue, or that the next movies might be delayed, in hopes that the ballooning costs of digital effects might come down. In a recent appearance on The Town podcast, Cameron reveals how much money an Avatar movie actually costs (approximately) and why the sequel’s success is not guaranteed. He said:
It is a metric fuckton of money, which means we need to make two metric fucktons of money to make a profit. I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?
It seems absolutely wild to think that the sequel to two of the highest-grossing movies of all time might not make enough, but that possibility has to be taken seriously. The first Avatar was like nothing the world had ever seen before, a 3D spectacle that had to be experienced in theaters. The first sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, came out a decade later. It had been so long that people felt they needed to see it.
However, Avatar: Fire and Ash is coming out only a few years after the last movie. Will audiences still feel that need to see the movie in theaters, in an era where it seems no blockbuster’s box office success is a guarantee? There simply hasn’t been a franchise like Avatar before, so there’s no way to be sure.
And as Cameron says, these movies are expensive to make, which ultimately means that Avatar: Fire and Ash might actually need to match its predecessors as one of the highest-grossing movies ever in order to make enough money to justify the return of the franchise. Anything less just might not be enough.
For what it’s worth, James Cameron seems to already be at peace with the possibility that he might be ready to leave “Avatar land.” If fans are worried that the story may be left half-finished, Cameron indicates that by the end of Fire and Ash, there won’t be a great deal of the story left unaddressed, and for the part that is left hanging, he’ll simply finish the story another way. He continued:
If this is where it ends, cool. There is one open thread. I’ll write a book.
For a franchise that has been so visually impressive, it would be more than a little disappointing if the Avatar ended as a novel. Still, that’s better than it not ending at all. A lot of people will be watching the box office returns for Avatar: Fire and Ash very closely, but clearly none more so than James Cameron himself.