It’s not exactly a controversial statement that the theatrical film industry is in a weird place right now. People simply aren’t going to the movies in quite the numbers they used to. Moderately budgeted films are disappearing from theaters, and even blockbusters aren’t putting up the numbers they used to. Although there are exceptions, like Avatar.
Avatar: The Way of Water proved that there was still interest in the franchise, not only being a massive hit, but also becoming one of the highest-grossing movies ever. I fully expected that the new movie Avatar: Fire and Ash would also put up big numbers, and that the two remaining planned sequels would happen in short order, but speaking with Variety, it seems James Cameron is far less sure. He indicates that if the new film doesn’t make enough, we could see a delay in making the last two films, or perhaps that they might not even happen. He said…
There are others that I may or may not direct. And the big swing in all of this is, do we make any money with ‘Avatar 3’? I mean, we’ll make some money. But the question is, what kind of a profit margin, if any, is there, and how much of an inducement is that to continue on in this universe? Or maybe we wait a while until we figure out how to bring costs down. Because production costs have spiraled over the last few years, especially in VFX. Everything’s gone up an enormous amount, and it’s starting to close out the type of films that I like to make.
While there’s certainly no argument that movie production budgets have steadily increased, and the cost of massive blockbusters has increased that much more, at the end of the day, that usually just means those movies need to make a lot of money at the box office to be profitable, but the Avatar franchise certainly hasn’t had that problem.
To be fair, Avatar: The Way of Water was an expensive movie, with an estimated budget that may have approached $500 million. That said, some of that cost was also the filming of Avatar 3, which was done alongside the second film, and since Avatar 2 made well over $2 billion, it more than paid off its debts.
But who knows? Avatar 2 came a decade after the first film. Perhaps there was a pent-up demand for the franchise that won’t be there with Avatar 3. If that’s the case, it’s possible that the remaining two sequels may not go into production for a while, which may give Cameron the chance to work on other things. He continued…
So there’s an argument for taking a pause and figuring that out. There’s an argument for going out and doing some smaller, more personal film in the meantime, while that gets figured out. There’s an argument, in wild success, for us just launching and just going straight into [‘Avatar 4’ and ‘Avatar 5’] and I figure out a production methodology where I have a bit of a hiatus where I can make another film. And there’s another argument that says just go make those two damn movies and figure everything else out when I’m 80.
Cameron has expressed interest in directing other films and is attached to write and direct the adaptation of the book Ghosts of Hiroshima. But one of the big questions is just when he might have time to do that with two major Avatar films left to make. Certainly, if the franchise took a significant break, he would have the time. Of course, if things wait too long, Cameron might not be able to direct the last two Avatar movies.
It seems wild to believe that Avatar: Fire and Ash won’t make billions and that Cameron won’t jump right into making Avatar 4 and 5, but then, the movie business keeps changing, and certainly, anything is possible.