The primary full week of December 2024 got here with a variety of awards wins that cumulatively illuminate what course Oscar voters might go towards, particularly those that like to concentrate to what critics counsel they watch on the Academy portal.
Beginning with the 2 main worldwide occasions, the European Movie Awards (in Switzerland this yr,) and the British Unbiased Movie Awards, what has been all however confirmed, after months of suspicion, is that Cannes winners “Anora” and “Emilia Pérez” are formidable contenders.
The latter Netflix movie swept all 4 main classes it was nominated for on the EFAs, plus a recognition for its modifying by Juliette Welfling, resulting in historical past being made with star Karla Sofía Gascón turning into the primary ever trans lady to win the European Actress award.
Whereas Jacques Audiard successful European Director doesn’t come as a lot of a shock, because the French auteur has lengthy been tipped to be a favourite of the European sect of voters, his win for European Screenwriter over compatriot Coralie Fargeat, who received Greatest Screenplay at Cannes for her movie “The Substance,” is a sign that “Emilia Pérez” is much more of a powerhouse with European Academy members than we notice. Musicals very hardly ever win screenplay awards. Additionally price noting that final yr’s massive winner on the European Movie Awards was “Anatomy of a Fall,” which later acquired a Greatest Image nomination, a shock Greatest Director nomination, and received the Oscar for Greatest Unique Screenplay.
The large winner on the BIFAs was “Kneecap,” receiving seven awards together with Greatest British Unbiased Movie. Although the Sundance breakout has largely been written off as being too small for competition in a lot of the above the road Oscar classes, its success on the U.Okay. based mostly awards ceremony certifies the Sony Footage Classics launch as a real darkish horse for the Greatest Worldwide Function class after being chosen as Eire’s submission.
Extra notable by way of what movies may extra probably win Oscars are “Anora” successful the Greatest Worldwide Unbiased Movie class and “Arduous Truths” star Marianne Jean-Baptiste successful Greatest Lead Efficiency on the BIFAs. Each wins mirror a consensus constructing throughout the movie criticism neighborhood as nicely, the place each events had been massive winners with the Los Angeles Movie Critics Affiliation (Baptiste sharing her Lead Efficiency win with “Anora” star Mikey Madison.)
A seemingly foreboding reality is the final time the New York Movie Critics Circle and the LAFCA had the identical Greatest Actress winner who didn’t go on to obtain an Oscar nomination was in 2008, when each teams awarded Sally Hawkins for her efficiency in “Pleased-Go-Fortunate,” one other Mike Leigh movie. Nevertheless, in contrast to Hawkins on the time, Baptiste has already been nominated for an Oscar, and is coping with a really completely different Academy that has diversified and started to favor veteran performers like Frances McDormand and Michelle Yeoh lately.
With the inspiration of Baptiste not simply successful over critics, however the business professionals that vote on the BIFAs, and have a wee little bit of crossover with the Academy, a Greatest Actress nomination appears a tad safer, permitting the “Arduous Truths” awards crew and distributor Bleecker Road to make use of that momentum to construct up extra recognition for Leigh’s script and course as nicely (for which he was snubbed for on the BIFAs.)
The final two movies price mentioning, who had wonderful weekends throughout the board, making all of them the nearer to locking in an Oscar nomination or two, are documentary “No Different Land,” and animated movie “Circulation,” which doubles as Latvia’s submission for Greatest Worldwide Function. Each movies received on the EFAs and with the LAFCA (plus “No Different Land” was really nominated within the BIFA class that “Anora” received.)
Although each movies have their very own uphill battles, with “No Different Land” nonetheless not having a distributor going into preliminary Oscar voting, and it being an extremely aggressive yr for “Circulation” to interrupt into each Greatest Worldwide Function and Greatest Animated Function, these recognitions imply it might be surprising if both movie didn’t make the shortlists they’re up for come December 17.