An Academy Voter, Skilled Oddsmaker, and Critic Predict the 2025 Oscars Winners

Some years, it feels just like the winners of the Oscars have been pre-determined effectively prematurely of the particular ceremony. In 2025, although, predicting who will win on the 97th annual Academy Awards is way more up within the air. Even the consultants are saying this: “Are you able to bear in mind a season the place there’s ever been this a lot swapping of the No. 1 seat? The quantity of occasions everybody was so certain in regards to the front-runner, after which it might change within the subsequent couple of days,” an awards season strategist not too long ago advised Vulture.

Who have been the frontrunners when the Academy was truly voting on this 12 months’s awards? That’s what we’re making an attempt to guess. To tackle this problem, Consequence has assembled its personal crew of consultants: this humble leisure editor, knowledgeable betting skilled (James Leyfield of Casinos.com), and a voting member of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences (in any other case often called AMPAS), who has requested to stay nameless.

Beneath, please discover all of our picks. As a result of we’re all in regards to the drama, this may begin with our predictions for the smaller awards, earlier than constructing as much as Greatest Image.

Writing (Unique Screenplay)

Anora (Neon)

James’ Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora

I believe it’s going to be Anora’s 12 months — and a Greatest Unique Screenplay win can play a component in that.

Liz’s Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora

this 12 months’s nominees, Anora feels prefer it has the momentum to win right here, a minimum of — and it’ll be well-deserved, as Sean Baker’s script is a real curler coaster of romance and betrayal.

AMPAS Voter’s Prediction: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Palms down. Palms down. It’s probably the most artistic. And I frankly haven’t forgotten the movie since watching it. It’s caught in my head endlessly. To me, it’s no competitors.

Writing (Tailored Screenplay)

Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios)

James’ Prediction: Peter Straughan, Conclave

Hallelujah! This award appears to have Conclave’s title on it. The film received Greatest Screenplay on the Golden Globes and Greatest Tailored Screenplay on the BAFTAs due to Peter Straughan’s writing. Nonetheless, Nickel Boys might be hoping to work a miracle throughout Sunday’s ceremony: I nonetheless fancy Conclave to sneak it, however Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross’ screenplay is gaining traction.

Liz’s Prediction: Peter Straughan, Conclave

In a simply world, this might go to Nickel Boys. However that is in all probability Conclave’s to take, on condition that not one of the different nominees have the identical form of Greatest Image momentum. (It’s additionally a really stable adaptation, a screenplay that strikes by way of its story with clear precision.) That mentioned, that is one other class the place if A Full Unknown wins, its Greatest Image odds enhance immensely.

AMPAS Voter’s Prediction: Nickel Boys

This one was tougher for me as a result of there have been some actually good adaptions, I believe. However simply total, the expertise that you simply received from this adaptation — it’s Nickel Boys. That stood out probably the most to me. It’s so totally different and it’s so refreshing. It actually does deserve that recognition.