This week’s Screen Talk digs into the documentary Oscar race. If we narrow down the list of possibilities, what has a chance? And having surfed incoming waves of awards news, including awards given out by the Gothams, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the National Board of Review, plus Indie Spirit nominations, we have thoughts.
Some of these groups have more impact than others on the 10,000 Oscar voters who are figuring out what to watch at screenings and on the Academy Screening portal. That’s the main function of these awards groups: signal to the voters which films they should prioritize.
Some may not have registered, for example — if they do not listen to this podcast — on NYFCC Best Actress winner Rose Byrne in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” or Supporting Actress winner Amy Madigan in “Weapons.” Now they will check those movies out. And the NYFCC naming “KPop Demon Hunters” suggests not only the relative weakness of the animation field, but adds credibility to that Netflix phenomenon as the Oscar frontrunner.
Ryan attended the NYFCC voting at the Walter Reade Theatre in New York as a new voting member on Monday. He described the process as civilized, as written ballots are designed to whittle down the field.
We agree that the NYFFC, of the early voting groups, has the most prestige and clout and influence with Oscar voters. In the end, it will be up to them to make up their own minds. But as we all know, momentum can push voters into deciding that they really do love “CODA” or “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” There is a herd mentality.
For example, “One Battle After Another” ran the board this week, winning the Gothams Best FIlm and NYFCC Best Film and Supporting Actor Benicio del Toro and making a great showing on the National Board of Review. (At week’s end, it was also on the AFI Top Ten Films and scored 14 Critics Choice nominations.)
The Gothams don’t matter much, because so few people vote for them, none of them Academy members. Some of the awards are bought and paid for. There’s no overlap with other groups. And folks who attended the affair seemed unhappy with the long evening, although Ryan enjoyed hobnobbing. “We see a lot of these pay-for-play tribute awards to films like ‘After the Hunt’ that didn’t receive any legitimate nominations or wins,” Ryan said. “You have Luca Guadagnino and Julia Roberts on the stage understanding that they are there because Amazon paid for a table. It risks illegitimizing the other awards. I was even hearing that there was pressure from Gotham brass on the nomination committees to award bigger films like ‘Sinners.’ Ever since the Gothams removed the budget cap, that opened Pandora’s box into this becoming no longer a celebration of independent film.”
The National Board of Review is another group of assorted, almost random educators and critics who don’t overlap much with the Academy. But their lists are pored over for meaning. Does it matter that critics faves missing from the top 10 include “Hamnet” and “Bugonia”? They are hanging in at the box office and have many supporters. Anne never thought that “Nuremberg” was an awards player, even though it’s a surprise hit: $12.7 million domestic, $16.8 worldwide. But Sony Pictures Classics can’t be counted out: It could push Michael Shannon into Supporting Actor.
The delightfully arcane Indie Spirits nominations, in terms of Oscars, mainly benefit Netflix’s “Train Dreams,” a movie is that is swiftly rising into contention for Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, and Adapted Screenplay, which along with “Frankenstein” is Netflix’s best shot at multiple Oscar nods.
As for the Best Feature Documentary Oscar race, films on American subjects have a harder time gaining an Oscar nomination than films with international appeal, now that 32 percent of the doc branch is international vs. 24 percent of the rest of the voters.
This year will test that bias — last year, all five docs were international (“Sugarcane” was Canadian). But it may have come down to the movies themselves. A strong movie like “The Perfect Neighbor,” which edits police cam footage into a compelling narrative that cannot be denied for its authenticity, may reach a wide swatch of voters.
Or, the old Netflix antipathy could kick in. None of its shortlisted movies made it last year, but it has three strong contenders who are beloved: Laura Poitras who has three nominations and one win, very unusual, for her critique of American democracy, “Cover-Up,” and Petra Costa’s “Apocalypse in the Tropics,” her follow up to the nominated “The Edge of Democracy.” All are timely. But Poitras and Costa are more international.
International films like Ukraine war movie “2,000 Meters to Andriivka,” from the same team behind the Oscar-winning “20 Days in Mariupol,” Iran’s “Cutting Through Rocks,” and North Macedonian “The Tale of Silyan,” from the filmmakers behind “Honyeland,” could have the advantage in the Oscar race.
Next week: Top Ten Best Lists!
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