I do know what you’re considering. How is it virtually the center of March and the Oscars nonetheless aren’t accomplished but? If it seems like awards season has lasted an eternity, that’s as a result of it has. What begins as a dash on the Cannes Movie Pageant in Might turns right into a grueling nine-month marathon that doesn’t let up till Oscar Sunday, when the business lastly anoints its champion.
Fortunate for us, 2025 delivered. It was a banner yr for daring, numerous, and genuinely unique work — movies that made noise each commercially and critically, and, extra importantly, lingered in dialog lengthy after opening weekend.
It’s becoming, then, that Warner Bros. — a studio that’s spent the previous couple of months dominating headlines whereas Netflix and Paramount locked into an costly bidding warfare that in the end noticed David Ellison’s Skydance-backed Paramount emerge victorious — is all however assured to take dwelling Finest Image on Sunday. After a chaotic company saga, the studio is poised for a golden bookend.
Weeks in the past, in the event you’d requested me the place I used to be leaning, the reply was apparent. Due to a clear sweep of precursor awards and an simple aura of inevitability, Paul Thomas Anderson’s searing, slow-burn stress cooker “One Battle After One other” felt unstoppable. However the Oscars’ late-season calendar permits narratives to shift — and in the event you’ve been paying consideration, you possibly can really feel the tide turning.
To name “Sinners,” which landed a record-smashing 16 nominations, an underdog now feels absurd. However for a lot of the season, it appeared overmatched by the status pedigree of Paul Thomas Anderson and the stately gravitas of “One Battle.” The Academy additionally has a traditionally spotty relationship with style fare — with “The Silence of the Lambs” usually cited because the uncommon exception that broke by.
All of which is to say: we formally have a race.
For Warner Bros., it’s a win-win state of affairs. One among their heavy hitters is strolling away with the gold. The one query is which one.
Listed below are my predictions for all 25 classes.
BEST PICTURE: SINNERS
At this level, you may as properly flip a coin. That is giving “Birdman” vs “Boyhood.” It’s giving “Parasite” vs “1917.” It’s giving “Roma” vs “Inexperienced E-book.” A real two-horse race the place both title being learn wouldn’t shock anybody within the room. Momentum is the whole lot, and coming off main SAG wins, I’m predicting “Sinners” pulls it out when the envelope is opened. However don’t — beneath any circumstances — rely out “One Battle.” It has been a juggernaut all season. Need an early inform? Watch Supporting Actor and Movie Enhancing. If both of these goes to “Sinners,” that’s your first sign that the evening might tilt its means.
Nonetheless, “One Battle” shouldn’t be going quietly.
BEST DIRECTOR: PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON — ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
This seems like one of many most secure bets of the evening. From “Boogie Nights” to “Magnolia,” from “There Will Be Blood” to “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson has constructed one of the formidable filmographies of his technology. This feels just like the Academy acknowledges not simply this movie, however the physique of labor. Sure, Ryan Coogler is correct there with “Sinners,” and sure, he completely deserves to be within the dialog. However this seems like an “it’s his time” Oscar.
Comfort prize? Coogler possible walks away with Unique Screenplay.
BEST ACTOR: MICHAEL B. JORDAN — SINNERS
Regardless of the discourse round Timothée Chalamet’s latest ballet and opera feedback, I don’t purchase that they meaningfully shifted the race. Voting was primarily locked by the point that clip went viral. The extra telling indicator is that Chalamet hasn’t picked up severe {hardware} for the reason that Golden Globes in January. In the meantime, Michael B. Jordan — who, let’s not overlook, performs two roles in “Sinners” — had been curiously missed all season… till SAG. And SAG issues. Actors make up the biggest department of the Academy. Sure, Chalamet gained SAG final yr for “A Full Unknown” earlier than dropping the Oscar to Adrien Brody in “The Brutalist.” Might historical past repeat itself in reverse? Positive. However Jordan provides the extra dynamic, technically demanding efficiency, and “Sinners” feels prefer it has broader ardour behind it.
Edge: Jordan. However this one’s tight.
BEST ACTRESS: JESSIE BUCKLEY — HAMNET
That is as near a lock as we get. From the second “Hamnet” premiered at Telluride, Jessie Buckley has owned this class. No challenger has critically threatened her dominance. The efficiency is devastating, managed, and simple. If she loses, will probably be the shock of the evening.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: SEAN PENN — ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
If somebody tells you they’re sure about this class, they’re mendacity. Sean Penn hasn’t precisely been campaigning aggressively, however his feral, unhinged flip in “One Battle” is the sort of efficiency that sticks in voters’ recollections. A 3rd Oscar would put him in rarefied firm. However Delroy Lindo, quietly magnificent in “Sinners,” is correct there. And Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Worth” isn’t any slouch both. The protected cash says Penn. The sensible cash watches this one carefully.
And if Lindo’s title will get referred to as? That’s an excellent signal for “Sinners.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: AMY MADIGAN — WEAPONS
“Weapons” was a industrial and significant smash, and Amy Madigan’s sinister Aunt Gladys — strategically hidden from a lot of the movie’s advertising — turned its secret weapon. That is the sort of veteran-respect win that echoes Jamie Lee Curtis’ triumph for “The whole lot In every single place All at As soon as.” It’s additionally the movie’s lone nomination, which might generally consolidate help. Nonetheless, don’t ignore Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners.” If there’s a shock right here, it’s her.
Remaining Predictions
Finest Tailored Screenplay: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Finest Unique Screenplay: SINNERS
Finest Cinematography: SINNERS
Finest Costume Design: FRANKENSTEIN
Finest Movie Enhancing: SINNERS
Finest Make-up and Hairstyling: FRANKENSTEIN
Finest Manufacturing Design: FRANKENSTEIN
Finest Music: “Golden” from KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
Finest Visible Results: AVATAR: FIRE & ASH
Finest Animated Characteristic: KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
Finest Documentary Characteristic: THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
Finest Worldwide Movie: SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Finest Animated Brief: THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS
Finest Documentary Brief: ARMED WITH ONLY A CAMERA
Finest Reside Motion Brief: TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA
The Oscars, hosted by Conan O’Brien, air stay Sunday, March fifteenth at 7PM EST on ABC and streaming on Hulu.