Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations introduced January 17, 2025. Closing voting is February 11-18, 2025. And eventually, the 97th Oscars telecast will likely be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air reside on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We replace our picks via awards season, so preserve checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.
The State of the Race
The identical might be mentioned for nearly all the opposite performing races, however wow does the proposed Greatest Supporting Actor lineup look quite a bit completely different than it did on the prime of awards season. The one fixed has been “A Actual Ache” star Kieran Culkin being most anticipated to win.
Moreover receiving nearly all of critics awards, the Emmy winner took house the Golden Globe for Greatest Efficiency by a Male Actor in a Supporting Function in any Movement Image, kicking off the televised portion of his Oscar run.
The actors he has been nominated in opposition to probably the most are Yura Borisov (“Anora”) and Edward Norton (“A Full Unknown”), whose movies each have a stronger probability at Greatest Image (as an illustration, their movies are nominated for Greatest Ensemble at SAG, whereas “A Actual Ache” just isn’t.)
“The Brutalist” star Man Pearce could be the following closest to being nominated, however the one knock in opposition to him is that he didn’t obtain a SAG Award nomination, and SAG is the one group that has the most important overlap in voters with the Actors department, which determines Oscar nominations. Nonetheless, a rising tide lifts all ships, and the increase star Adrien Brody and director Brady Corbet obtained by profitable on the Golden Globes, a televised awards present, ought to transfer the needle for Pearce sufficient to make the ultimate reduce.
It’s the fifth slot that has confirmed the toughest to foretell. Up to now, it looks as if Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) and Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) might have peaked too early, however the Academy has stored variety in thoughts lately, and so they had been the 2 most viable contenders of coloration, with Maclin having the sting on account of “Sing Sing” being extra of a Greatest Image contender. Nonetheless the A24 movie not profitable over SAG, regardless of being all about how the craft of performing can remodel lives, was taken by many as proof that its awards prospects have declined.
“Depraved” and “Conclave” are the opposite two Greatest Ensemble nominees on the SAG Awards which have Supporting Actor contenders like Jonathan Bailey and Stanley Tucci, respectively, with the previous getting a Greatest Supporting Actor nomination from the guild award as effectively, however the pair of actors have been acknowledged nearly nowhere else.
With nothing being set in stone, the present consensus is that “The Apprentice” star Jeremy Robust will get the fifth slot, having been nominated for SAG and BAFTA Awards lately. The movie has not carried out tremendous effectively with American audiences, but when the afterglow of “Succession” is powerful sufficient to push Culkin to the highest of the Greatest Supporting Actor race, then why not rely on Robust’s sturdy tackle Roy Cohn making the reduce.
Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, beneath.
Frontrunners:
Yura Borisov (“Anora”)
Kieran Culkin (“A Actual Ache”)
Edward Norton (“A Full Unknown”)
Man Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Jeremy Robust (“The Apprentice”)
Contenders:
Jonathan Bailey (“Depraved”)
Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“The Fireplace Inside”)
Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”)
Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”)
John Magaro (“September 5”)
Josh O’Connor (“Challengers”)
Adam Pearson (“A Totally different Man”)
Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”)
Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”)